The Year to Come - what could 2016 hold for the UK military?

As a new year dawns, it is hard to avoid reaching the conclusion that the world is in a tricky place, and the UK faces many challenges ahead in the year to come. I wanted to set out my own views on what could come to pass this year and how it may impact the UK defence and security community as a whole.

The global situation now is more unsettled than at any point since the end of WW2. Across the globe we see war, natural disasters, human misery and an unleashing of pent up frustrations. The much vaunted ‘end of history’ has not come to pass. If anything the world now needs to understand and learn from history, to avoid future history being a story of failure and regret.

For the UK, the completion of the Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) means that for the MOD, 2016 will be a year of consolidation and implementation. The review contained many commitments and challenges, and the MOD will have to focus now on moving on from questioning what it does, to implementing what it has to deliver. Some of these changes will be straightforward, others more challenging.

The clearly stated desire to move to a much longer term ‘global defence engagement’ footprint means there is likely to be a long period of re-engagement in some areas, and boosting of presence in others. Long standing locations of choice like BATSUB in Belize, neglected for some years, may see an increased presence, whilst in the Middle East and Asia Pacific, we are likely to see work done to implement the new ‘British Defence Staffs’ for the region. These herald the first formal setting up of permanent command structures for a non-operational task since the withdrawal from east of Suez in the 1970s, and their presence should be warmly welcomed.

In the Gulf in particular the UK will find itself committed to a region of significant instability and tension. Saudi Arabia appears to be on the verge of a serious diplomatic spat with Iran, which while unlikely to become kinetic in nature, will do nothing to ease tensions. The smaller gulf states will look anxiously for external protectors, and those with older or more insecure rulers may look with concern at what happens when Houses or regimes fall. The UK will need to decide whether to embrace the new or sustain the old, or as is most likely, strike a balance between the two.

It is unlikely that we will see a full scale shooting war in the region, but the ongoing commitment of maritime forces in the Arabian Gulf, and the RAF and elements of ground forces in Iraq will continue. There is unlikely to be ‘victory’ in Iraq / Syria, if only because there is no clear agreement on what victory is there. The ongoing commitment of the RAF to the region in not insubstantial numbers will increasingly go largely unremarked, except when journalists want to write stories about the lack of aircraft committed to the campaign, or the relatively low number of strikes conducted.

While in itself the ongoing air campaign will not unduly tax the military overall, it will put pressure on both the GR4 and ISTAR forces, particularly as the GR4 comes to the end of its life. The drawdown of the fleet will reduce the ability for it to respond to other roles, which could be potentially embarrassing if called upon for an exceptional crisis. Meanwhile the Typhoon fleet will continue to gain in size and capability, although it is unlikely to translate into any credible export sales this year – the medium term future for the UK aerospace industry is looking more challenging unless one of the many expressions of interest is translated into a firm concrete order soon.

In Europe the combination of the ongoing humanitarian crisis and Russian intransigence will cause challenges for many countries. While again a war is exceptionally unlikely, it is possible that Russian mischief making could keep some NATO countries on edge, whilst seeing ongoing commitments of UK forces to conduct training and reassurance to them. There is likely to be a steady procession of training teams heading East to try to calm nerves, and equally there is likely to be strident efforts to avoid being committed to permanent bases in the region.

It is likely that UK support to the humanitarian crisis will become enduring, as the flood of humanity continues to edge west. Whether this turns into a more kinetic response in due course is yet to be seen, although the loss of moral outrage since the summer over dead toddlers indicates there is currently little public sympathy for the notion that ‘something must be done’ (even if we don’t quite know what it is!). These tasks will continue to take high capability Royal Navy platforms off other duties, and again highlight that the UK Border Force cutters are perhaps more useful than a frigate for this role – what this means for the surface fleet is not yet clear.

Africa is likely to remain a continent of deeply unstable messes, with the constant potential for evacuation operations, hostage rescue and other tasks. The UK has spent more time in Africa than perhaps is often realised in recent years, and there remains a not insubstantial British commitment on the ground in training teams across the continent. This will doubtless continue, although a more kinetic involvement in places like Libya cannot be ruled out if the nation looks likely to fall. What is clear though is the combination of an unstable north, coupled with older rulers and more despotic rulers in the south, means that there are plenty of opportunities for the UK to find itself sucked in at short notice to new tasks or problems.

The Asia Pacific region will increase in tensions as the Chinese continue to assert their claims to various pieces of real estate in the region, which in turn will be contested by other nations. The UK will retain an interest, in part due to the much wider network of diplomatic and commercial interests in the region, but is unlikely to get directly embroiled in it due to the minimal UK military commitment or interest in the region as a whole. That said though, this is one region where things have the potential to get out of hand quickly if not closely monitored and calmed.

Overall the UK will find itself torn between being a globally committed power, seeking to influence events across many continents, while seeing that despite being very capable, there is only so much resource to go around. Ultimately for the UK, 2016 may the year of holding the line and trying to keep a complex web of alliances, bilateral links and relationships alive, while not necessarily having the time, money or people to fully commit to all of them all of the time. 

Typhoon will remain heavily committed overseas

For the MOD as a whole, it is likely that a lot of effort will go into meeting the in year savings measures announced by the Chancellor last year, while trying to save lots of money without directly impacting on front line outputs. This won’t be easy and is likely in time to lead to damaging headlines as newspapers spot what they consider to be ‘defence cuts’ and compare them to the promise to spend 2% of GDP on Defence.

Recruitment and employment conditions will probably be of high importance, trying to not only meet an ever more challenging target for recruiting to the reserves, but also retaining those who have joined and find their interest waning, whilst also keeping the regular military recruited too. Trying to balance the challenges of retaining manpower within pinch point trades, whilst meeting operational commitments and harmony time for people but without significant flexibility for either reward or career changes will be difficult. One of the less glamorous but arguably more important changes will be the move to a New Employment Model (NEM), trail blazed in SDSR, but which will set out how the UK will pay and reward people in future.

The NEM is interesting because it marks the move away from a traditionally Victorian rooted system last really looked at some decades ago, and instead moves to a much more modern system in line with the aspirations of todays new joiners. It will doubtless cause disgruntlement among older personnel, and again may be the cause of much media angst as the year progresses.

On an equipment front the two biggest stories of the year will likely be the sailing for trials of HMS QUEEN ELIZABETH, some 18 years after the project was first confirmed in the 1998 SDR. This will combine national pride in a job well done, with national outrage on stories about carriers without harriers and other such ill-informed rubbish, particularly as she isn’t due to commission till next year. The decision for new trident submarines will also dominate headlines, as much from a political angle as a military one. The successor programme will be a hugely complex project and is likely to be the cause of much attention as it moves forward towards service entry.

The Army will seek to do more of this at any cost!

For the RN, the year will be about focusing on the move to the new carriers, and once again trying to slowly move forward Type 26 and the RFA vessels. New capability is looming ever closer on the horizon, and much dangerous water was successfully navigated during SDSR, but we’re not out of the woods yet. There will need to be some tough decisions made soon on issues like RFA DILIGENCE and future stores ships, as well as manpower, particularly retention.

The RAF will be primarily fixated by delivering a range of operations across the world, and in keeping to manning the Typhoon fleet and drawing down Tornado, while getting F35 ever closer. The news that MPA is back will help rejuvenate morale, but will take several years to come good. In the meantime, the service will operate both very old and very capable platforms in very difficult circumstances.

The key focus for the Army will be on identifying what it is meant to do in the post SDSR world. For all the talk of divisional capability and rapid reaction forces, SDSR was not the finest hour for the Army, which it seems clear is significantly overmanned for political, not operational reasons. Expect to see a lot of defence engagement press releases, and every chance possible to push the case for an army that with the end of HERRICK has lost a war but not found a raison d’etre to believe in.

Whatever happens, it will be an exciting and challenging year ahead, and it is clear that we will be living in ‘interesting times’…